NOAA’s Latest Drought Forecast Isn’t Great News for Western Montana

We've been talking a lot lately about El Niño and what it could mean for Montana's winter. We've looked at forecasts from NOAA, the Old Farmer's Almanac, and other sources, with plenty of discussion about what kind of ski season we might see and whether we'll get enough snow and moisture. 

Drought Concerns in Western Montana

Now, there's another part of the forecast we need to pay attention to: the potential for drought in western Montana. 

READ MORE: NOAA and Old Farmer’s Almanac Disagree on Montana’s Winter

NOAA has released an updated U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook covering October 15, 2026, through January 31, 2027. The outlook examines where drought conditions could develop, worsen, improve, or end over the coming months.  

Drought Risks in the Northern Rockies

The forecast isn't particularly encouraging for parts of western Montana. 

According to NOAA's latest outlook, drought conditions are favored to develop or worsen across parts of the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. That includes western Montana, much of Idaho, northeastern Oregon, and eastern Washington.  

A Favorable Outlook for Eastern Montana

There is some better news for eastern Montana, where the outlook does not identify the same risk of developing drought conditions. 

However, the picture looks different as you move west in Montana. Parts of western Montana and northern Idaho are in areas where drought development is a concern, with some locations potentially seeing existing conditions worsen. 

This is worth watching as we head into winter, particularly as we wait to see whether El Niño will bring the moisture we need.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern involving warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It can influence storm tracks, precipitation, and temperatures across the United States. 

El Niño's Influence: Warmer Winters Ahead

For the upcoming winter, NOAA is forecasting warmer-than-average temperatures across much of Montana.  

That doesn't mean every part of Montana will have a dry winter or that significant snowstorms are off the table. Seasonal forecasts describe broader trends and probabilities, not the weather we'll experience on any particular day. 

Still, the drought outlook adds another concern to the conversation about our upcoming winter. 

READ MORE: NOAA’s Updated Montana Winter Forecast Isn’t Great News for Snow

Navigating Uncertainty: Ski Resorts and Agriculture

It's too early to draw firm conclusions about what these forecasts could mean for Montana's ski resorts, agriculture, water supplies, or next year's wildfire season. 

A lot will depend on how much precipitation we actually receive over the coming months, where that moisture falls, and how temperatures affect snowpack and soil conditions. 

The Long-Term Implications of Drought

If drought develops or worsens, the effects could extend into spring and summer.

For now, this is another forecast worth keeping an eye on as we try to figure out what El Niño has in store for Montana. 

Credit: NOAA

We'll continue following the latest updates as we learn more about what winter could bring to western Montana